According to the ANRPC report, Malaysia yield on the previous ten months fell 9.9%, Chinese fell 7%, Thailand grew only 2.9%, 0.5% growth in Indonesia, Vietnam is relatively stable, up to 4.4%. The whole year is expected to increase in the global supply of less than 2%.

This year’s consumer than expected and release due to insufficient supply of domestic rubber stocks continued to digest, tight spot situation continued to increase, the Qingdao Free Trade Zone stock return to 100 thousand tons, the old warehouse has a smooth transition of latex, 10 tens of thousands of tons of goods due to the smooth flow of cash market price stability and digestion, so continue to exceed the expected rise.

The future is still worthy of attention including the latex products demand highlights, raw material circulation problems in Burma’s political risk, and Trump in the American version of four trillion infrastructure projects.

It is understood that the downstream tire enterprises hot situation continues, the current orders generally lined up, construction is still high before the spring festival. Raw material from the end of November, December, Yunnan, Hainan, Southeast Asian producing area will gradually stop cutting into the period, new supply is gradually reduced, the market will stop cutting test period inventory stock supply situation will continue. The expected 2017 year in the two quarter, the spot will continue to reflect the contradictions, the two quarter prices can be expected.

After the reorganization of supply chain value return and restocking will continue

From the point of view of a longer cycle, rubber after 6 consecutive years of decline, the whole supply chain is seriously damaged, repair the current from the start price will continue to expand.

Over the past few years, in the upper reaches of decline damaged in the most prominent, the price has exceeded the limit of long-term cost, caused the rubber farmers abandoned the shortage, cut, glue factory bankruptcy integration. The middle reaches of the trade circulation continuous passive to speculation, to the inventory, the spot level after the mighty wave crashing on a sandy shore short of energy has already cut. The downstream long-term maintenance of low inventory purchasing strategy, but benefit from raw materials, sustained low end market demand expansion, the overall scale and profits continue to grow.

The current rally is to repair the entire rubber supply chain value distribution, the future upstream of the dilemma will be improved, the whole industry restocking will be further expanded. Rubber will be accompanied by other commodities in the macro fundamentals, fundamentals, techniques, funds face multiple bullish superposition, prices continuing steadily upward. In the long term, to confirm the long-term value of natural rubber in the long.