The demand side, the background of continued investment in the real estate regulation and upgrade infrastructure, expects China’s iron ore imports will remain slow growth; $500 billion infrastructure investment plan the United States Trump will bring new increment for the global shipping market; to see, according to the IMF forecast for the next three years of global GDP the growth rate of coal, grain and other bulk cargo shipping amount varieties compared to 2016 growth is expected to further improve.

A moderate rebound can be expected

Dongxing Securities report optimistic forecasts, 2016 this cycle of dry bulk, dry bulk shipping cycle recovery has been opened. 2017 BDI big trend is expected to exceed expectations, is expected to an increase of 33%-63%, in the long term there is still room to rise.

Used or BDI index, it is expected to usher in a super cycle?

“The container sector has bottomed out, a short time to carry freight rising with the off-season coming eased, to solve the problem of global excess capacity still needs time.” The Kawasaki (Kline) said.

CITIC Securities commodity business line senior manager Xu Xiao pointed out that the BDI base is quite low, moderate rebound is not out of the shipping market and, after falling bottoming out higher risk. In addition, the rise of the market is usually made by the new requirements appear to provide. President Barack Trump’s $500 billion infrastructure projects have been on the market a number of agencies that benefit the global ore trade, 2017 will be the catalyst of the dry bulk market.

According to the calculation results of an organization, Trump’s $500 billion infrastructure investment plan once effective incremental demand for shipping a year will give an additional 1.5%-2.6%.

However, Xu Xiao pointed out that considering the current fleet facing obsolescence or loss, overcapacity leads to long-term rates at low levels, and the ship financing more expensive and difficult; at the same time, the development of the industry is also facing the challenge of global economic uncertainty, oil prices continued to remain low, also should avoid overly optimistic.

“In fact, the shipping cycle has been from the second quarter of last year began to recover, the shipping cycle recovery lag the recovery of the global economy almost half a year or so, commodities are periodic recovery characteristics from the beginning of last year, the global economic data also show that the 2016 recovery is good, this is the basis of shipping cycle recovery. But we think it is a weak recovery, the future will be repeated, at least not back to the level of the first quarter of last year.” Jiang Xingchun said.