Downstream procurement enthusiasm decreased

By the cost of lifting and lack of supply boost, PVC prices since June has risen sharply. However, the high price is difficult to conduct down, coupled with the import arbitrage window open, PVC prices turn down. Technically, since the fourth quarter of last year, PVC out of a large arc bottom form, 8,000 yuan / ton more pressure. Last week, the price fell below the pre-support line, the weakness has been.

Environmental protection affect the weakening of calcium carbide prices on the weak

This year, the intensity of environmental inspection is unprecedented, on the one hand that the determination of environmental pollution control, on the other hand hope that through the policy approach to eliminate backward production capacity to achieve supply side reform. In this case, a large area of ​​chemical enterprises to stop production, chlor-alkali industry has not been spared. Affected by the overall supply of calcium carbide shortage. Small capacity of the calcium carbide furnace are basically in a parking state, even if the production is still high-capacity calcium carbide furnace, but also forced by environmental pressure, planned parking maintenance. Not only that, in some areas of the strict inspection of dangerous goods, resulting in poor transport of calcium carbide, and further pushed up the price of calcium carbide.

However, with the depth of environmental maintenance, the market for the resulting shortage of calcium carbide supply has been gradually adapted. At present, in addition to the Central Plains part of the provinces, calcium carbide supply tends to be stable, prices continue to rise kinetic energy.

In addition, at present, PVC enterprises in the normal range of calcium carbide stocks, calcium carbide short-term tight supply capacity to enhance the follow-up bargaining power to enhance the transaction, reducing the possibility of a substantial increase in calcium carbide prices.

Supply shortage situation improves import arbitrage space open

According to customs statistics, in July, China’s imports of PVC 53069.43 tons, an increase of 0.51%. In addition, from January to July, imports increased by 13.48% year on year. As the domestic PVC prices continue to rise, the situation of imports of goods premiums reversed. In this case, the import arbitrage window opened, a direct result of the July domestic PVC imports increased. If domestic prices continue to rise, then this behavior will be more obvious. However, the law of one price will gradually sharpen the difference. In addition to supply, low inventory is the main reason for PVC prices rose. Recently, although there are signs of increased inventory, but the overall inventory is still low, roughly 200,000 tons. Later, with the resumption of parking devices and the decline in downstream orders, inventory may accumulate. And this will undoubtedly suppress PVC prices.

Downstream demand for poor performance difficult to conduct down

This year the real estate industry as a whole started to decline, for the procurement of building materials is weak, PVC prices increase the cost increase is difficult to conduction to the terminal, which led to downstream pipe and profile profits decline, its resistance to high prices PVC is heating up. In addition, with the passage of time, the market for the follow-up demand for the decline in concerns to strengthen the industry mentality has changed, the late downstream will become a stronger industrial chain side, it is bound to lower the price of PVC procurement.

Forecast

Terminal demand is poor, the enthusiasm of the downstream business procurement decline. In this case, the high cost is difficult to conduct down, and ultimately feedback in the industry chain. It should be noted that last week, PVC prices fell too much, below 7,000 yuan / ton and an important support this week is expected to oversold bounce, the operation can be back to the end of the rebound.